Published 3/27 at 4:00 pm
1. Panthers
Ohio State QB | CJ Stroud
Aaron - The Panthers need their guy. They need to draft the QB that they feel best about, and so far, my gut feeling is that Stroud is the first guy to go off the board. He’s a polished and hella precise thrower and can fit the ball into really tight windows, and he’ll do great in Carolina. The biggest question for Stroud is whether he can be mobile enough to evade the incoming pass rushers and not get hurt. I’d compare him to Dak Prescott or a slower Joe Burrow. Mobility is the biggest question mark, but I don’t think it’ll be a problem for the Panthers with how well they run the ball.
2. Texans
Alabama QB | Bryce Young
Ryan - I highly doubt the Texans will move out from this spot. There is still uncertainty surrounding the Panthers’ trading down now. In this scenario, the Texans stay put, and DeMeco Ryans has his guy locked up for five years and is able to get to work and give him the necessary weapons to succeed. This is a no-brainer for me.
3. Cardinals
Alabama EDGE | Will Anderson Jr.
Aaron - J.J. Watt has retired, and the Cardinals are in need of a pass rusher. There also happens to be the best and only true “blue chip” edge defender available at this pick. Anderson is a freaking beast and will immediately contribute to the Cards' defense. He’s my pick for the best player in the class, and if that guy falls to you at three, then as a team and as a front office, it’s not a debate. You take him.
4. Colts
Florida QB | Anthony Richardson
Ryan - There is only one quarterback left that I deem worthy of a first-round pick right now, and the Colts take a jab at it. In my opinion, Richardson has the second highest ceiling of the quarterbacks in this class, but with the right coaching, this can be easily achieved. New head coach Shane Steichen may want to run a similar style of offense as he did in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts. Again, this just makes too much sense.
5. Seahawks
Georgia DT | Jalen Carter
Aaron - Carter might be one of the most interesting players in this class. Entering this year’s draft season, he was in the conversation with Will Anderson Jr. as the best player in the class. Well, now, after some off-field events and a rather disappointing pro day and combine, Carter’s stock can go any which way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carter were picked at three by the Cardinals or if he fell all the way to nine or ten. That said, he’s still a great player, and a Seahawks D-Line with Carter and the newly-acquired Dre’Mont Jones would be one to behold.
6. Lions
Texas Tech EDGE | Tyree Wilson
Ryan - I would have selected Jalen Carter here, but Aaron beat me to it. Wilson is next up on my board. I would love to watch the Lions on Sunday with a duo of Aidan Hutchinson and Tyree Wilson. They complement each other's style of play quite well and will give Detroit two possible All-Pro starters for years to come.
7. Raiders
Oregon CB | Christian Gonzalez
Ryan - The Raiders have been active in free agency and made some underrated signings in David Long and Duke Shelly. The secondary is still lacking a tall(er) corner that is able to bring versatility to this defense. I said it before, and I’ll say it again, the Raiders lack talent on the defensive side of the ball, and Gonzalez would be bringing that to Vegas. I wouldn’t be upset if they address another defense position here, but in this scenario, it works out perfectly in their favor and gives them a solid group to build upon.
8. Falcons
Clemson EDGE | Myles Murphy
Ryan - I was flip-flopping a bit with this one between receiver and edge, but I ultimately went with an edge rusher because this wide receiver class is somewhat lackluster. The only issue I have here is Murphy will get tall very fast and will lose at the line of scrimmage because he doesn’t have a backup plan. NFL coaching will help with that because that has to be second-hand nature. That being said, he is still the third-best edge on my board, and any NFL team would love to have him.
9. Bears
Ohio State WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Aaron - The Bears seem to be taking the same approach to team-building as the Eagles did last season - giving their young QB everything they need him to have so they can assess him properly. With Justin Fields entering his third season in the league, the Bears need a definite answer by the end of the season as to whether he’s their guy or not. Drafting JSN (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) is an excellent way to help Fields answer that question. Smith-Njigba is a smooth operator with quick, efficient footwork who has a lovely knack for getting open. Now with JSN running alongside D.J. Moore, Chase Claypool, and Darnell Mooney, the Bears' WR room would likely not be the issue with the offense.
10. Eagles
Illinois CB | Devon Witherspoon
Aaron - The Eagles have been needing to draft a cornerback for the last few seasons, what with how old and shallow their CB room is. Adding Witherspoon here is 1) so much freaking fun and 2) the most logical pick for the Birds. Behind Bradberry, Slay, and Maddox is a VERY shallow depth chart at DB, and Witherspoon would be able to fill that corner 4 slot beautifully or maybe even compete with Maddox for corner 3. Danny Kelly from the Ringer compared Witherspoon to “Jaire Alexander physically and Kam Chancellor spiritually,” and I could not love any comparison more. Witherspoon plays corner like he’s out for revenge and looking to dish out some pain in the process. He’s a demon of a corner and would be a perfect fit to learn from Slay and Bradberry while also adding depth.
11. Titans
Northwestern OT | Peter Skoronski
Aaron - This pick is an interesting one because, at the end of the day, it’s all down to preference. The Titans desperately need help on their line, and the most bountiful position here other than corner would be offensive tackle. My favorite OT pick is Skoronski, which is why I took him on the Morning Show. Ryan disagrees because he has “little baby t-rex arms,” but that 6’4” frame, smooth footwork, and great balance will make a Skoronski an excellent day-one starter.
12. Texans
Georgia EDGE | Nolan Smith
Ryan - Good technique will always trump size. Smith is a bit undersized at 6’2’ and weighed in at 238 lbs at the NFL Combine. He will eventually be asked to add more weight when he is drafted, but some question whether or not he can hold up for a full seventeen-game season. However, his 4.39-sec 40-yard dash was eye-opening. Smith’s top-end speed was elite, and NFL teams are drooling over an edge defender with that kind of athletic ability. The Texans snag him here at No. 12.
13. Jets
Ohio State OT | Paris Johnson Jr.
Aaron - The Jets’ quarterback questions are still lingering, and because of that, their offseason had to be put on hold. You can’t sign anyone until you know how much you’ll end up paying for a quarterback. But no matter what quarterback you have under center, it’s a good idea to draft some quality protection for him. I have Johnson Jr. listed as the second-best pass protector in this class (behind Skoronski). This man has a freakish build, standing 6’6” and weighing in at 313 with 36 and ⅛ inch arms. And somehow, with all that body, he’s able to stay light on his feet and keep rushers in front of him. He’ll be an excellent addition to the protection of (insert quarterback here).
14. Patriots
Penn State CB | Joey Porter Jr.
Ryan - Like father, like son. Son of former 4x Pro Bowler and Super Bowl XL Champion NFL linebacker Joey Porter, Porter Jr. does indeed have that “dawg” in his blood. With Jalen Mills moving back to safety and a clear need at corner, Porter Jr. is the next guy up in New England. With a phenomenal showing at the NFL Combine and a 34” arm length, I wouldn’t be surprised if he went even higher than No. 14.
15. Packers
Notre Dame TE | Michael Mayer
Aaron - Every part of me is filled with joy knowing if this were to come true, the Packers would be drafting their first first-round receiving prospect since Aaron Rodgers was drafted… after Rodgers supposedly is leaving the team. Karma is incredible. That said, Mayer is a freaking baller and would be the best pass-catcher for this Packers unit the second he puts on the green and yellow ball cap.
16. Commanders
Georgia TE | Darnell Washington
Ryan - This might be my second favorite pick of this draft. I was high on Washington from the beginning, and the Combine only solidified him as my TE2 in this draft. Standing at 6’7” creates a multitude of mismatches. NFL coaches with work with him on his footwork and hand usage, but the value is there. I don’t know how much input Dan Snyder will have on this pick if any at all. In a league where tight end is a luxury, two of them go off the board back-to-back.
17. Steelers
Ohio State OT | Dawand Jones
Aaron - This is another no-brainer for me. I have Jones listed as my 21st-best prospect and my third-ranked OT (behind Skoronski and Johnson Jr.). Because of that, there is no reason for the Steelers, who have had a rough go of it in pass protection recently, to continue beefing up their O-Line. Jones is another beast of a man, standing 6’8” and at a massive 374 pounds. I wouldn’t categorize him as quick, and for that reason, he might struggle against quicker and lower-to-the-ground pass rushers (i.e., Hassan Reddick or Micah Parsons). But his length (he set a new Senior Bowl record with an 89.5-inch wingspan) and pure power make up for that, and it also makes him excellent in the run block. Oh, and he also didn’t give up a single QB hit or sack in his 419 pass-rush snaps, per PFF.
18. Lions
Maryland CB | Deonte Banks
Ryan - I think this is the first of what I would consider a “reach” in this draft. Don’t get me wrong, Banks is really good, and he has proven that, but he is not in the same tier as Witherspoon, Gonzalez, and Porter Jr. (Aaron - I would’ve taken Cam Smith here, but I was overruled, sadly). Banks is one of the more physically gifted CB prospects, which is why I have him over guys like Ringo and Smith. His fundamentals are sound, but he will get caught lacking and is unaware of his surroundings at times on the field.
19. Buccaneers
Kentucky QB | Will Levis
Aaron - The Bucs' best QB on their roster is Baker Mayfield, or maybe Kyle Trask, depending on how low you are on Baker. That said, Tampa needs a quarterback, and a quality one seems to have fallen to their selection at 19. Levis is the 26th-best player on my big board, so his falling to No. 19 works out perfectly for all involved. He doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as the three QB’s taken at the beginning of this mock, but he certainly has a higher ceiling than what the Bucs are fielding at the moment. For what he plays like, imagine Ryan Tannehill if he could run better, was a little less accurate but had more power. That’s Levis.
20. Seahawks
Iowa State EDGE | Will McDonald IV
Ryan - Will McDonald IV fills a major need at edge for the Seahawks. He might even go higher than No. 20. Aaron and I talked about the Seahawks’ first pick on the podcast and debated whether they would select Jalen Carter over Tyree Wilson, but now in this scenario, they are set for the future. Dre’Mont Jones, Jalen Carter, and now Will McDonald IV… yeah, good luck. That group would wreak havoc on Sundays.
21. Dolphins
Forfeited
22. Chargers
USC WR | Jordan Addison
Aaron - Let’s get Justin Herbert some help y’all. The Chargers' defense under Brandon Staley has had its ups and downs, but they've had more ups than downs in his tenure. So now, if we want to help out Herbert, the best way to do so is to get him some legitimate quickness in his receiving corps. Addison doesn't have the “leave a path of fire in his wake” type of speed, but his quickness and route running help him to routinely get open. He has a knack for finding the opening in zone coverages, which is sure to help Herbert, who has sadly gotten used to just throwing it up to slower WRs and hoping they can come down with it.
23. Ravens
Boston College WR | Zay Flowers
Ryan - As I’m writing this, Lamar Jackson made it publicly clear that he asked for a trade on March 2nd before John Harbaugh spoke to the media. This is just a disaster for the Ravens that has now unfolded. I don’t know who is going to be throwing to Zay Flowers, whether it be Tyler Huntley, Geno Smith, or Trey Lance, but this has been a need for the Ravens for 10+ years, and they get one of the best route-runners in this class in Zay Flowers.
24. Vikings
Pitt DL | Calijah Kancey
Aaron - Kancey is one of my favorite prospects in this draft, mainly for his athletic prowess and the pure power he plays with. Also, he ran a lightning-fast 40-yard dash at 4.67 seconds, which is the fastest time EVER from a defensive tackle at the NFL Combine. Some might point to his lack of size as a question mark, especially for a DT, but I don’t. When you’re as strong and as powerful a player as Kancey, size doesn’t matter as much. Could he be moved to the edge? Probably, but we just have to wait and see.
25. Jaguars
Georgia OT | Broderick Jones
Ryan - Jawaan Taylor is now in Kansas City. Enter Broderick Jones. Jones will fill that need immediately and won’t miss a step. Some analysts have Broderick Jones as their top-rated tackle; however, I have him as the second-best tackle in this class (yes, over Skoronski) due to his body control. I’m sure Trevor Lawerence will approve of this pick as well.
26. Giants
Arkansas LB | Drew Sanders
Aaron - When I first watched Drew Sanders’ film, my first thought was, “this guy plays kinda like Luke Kuechly.” Obviously you never want to compare anyone to one of the best linebackers to play the game, but first reactions are first reactions. Sanders is a hard-hitting LB who can do anything that’s asked of him while playing point guard for a defense. In this Giant’s defense, he would be asked to do everything, and I truly believe he can deliver on that front.
27. Cowboys
Michigan DL | Mazi Smith
Ryan - This is my second reach of the draft where instead of going best player available, the Cowboys address a need along their defensive line. Smith hasn’t done anything to improve his stock over the past few weeks necessarily, but “tape don’t lie.” His lower body explosiveness is a concern for him, but his upper body strength is off the charts. He showed this during the Combine, putting up 34 on the bench. I have Smith sitting at a ripe ol’ 46th on my big board.
28. Bills
Texas RB | Bijan Robinson
Aaron - This pick is just too much fun. For starters, I need to address how Bijan was able to fall this far, and that’s simple. Running back isn’t a position teams are super comfortable drafting really high or spending large sums of money on. But Bijan is just so freaky good that he can’t be allowed to fall any farther. Could he have been taken earlier? Probably. But he wasn’t, so now he gets to run behind that Bills' O-Line while catching passes from Josh Allen. Is the Bills' running back room kinda crowded after this pick? Definitely, but trades do exist for a reason, and Bijan is worth it.
29. Bengals
Alabama S | Brian Branch
Ryan - This was a doozy for me because I loved Branch and raved about him in the pre-draft process. In our last mock, I took him 23rd overall to the Vikings. The Vikings still would be a great fit with Brian Flores taking over, but the only reason he fell was because of his combine performance. He ran a 4.58-sec 40-yard dash and a 34.5-inch vertical, which didn’t help his case. I love the film, but the numbers also don’t lie. Ultimately with Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell now gone, Dax Hill needs someone starting opposite of him, and Branch fills that need.
30. Saints
Iowa EDGE | Lukas Van Ness
Aaron - There might not be a single player in this draft class with as many differing opinions as Van Ness. For starters, he’s a beast of a man. He’s 6’5” and 272 lbs at just 21 years old, and he somehow ran a 4.58 40-yard dash. His teammates at Iowa nicknamed him Hercules for his greek god-esque frame and build. The problem with Herc here is that he was never a starter as Iowa and is so raw that he would give you salmonella. His technique is far from refined, and it’s something he’ll have to learn quickly in the league. Strength is also a question, and if you put any stock into a player’s bench press numbers, you have reason to be concerned.
31. Eagles
Florida OG | O’Cyrus Torrence
Ryan - This was tough as well. Aaron and I thought about this long and hard because with so many free agents leaving the Eagles, you are going to have holes to fill. Issac Seumalo is now a Pittsburgh Steeler due to salary cap restrictions. Torrence would be a plug-and-play guy that Eagles offensive line coach, Jeff Stoutland, will love to work with and mold over the next four or five years. This would really help the Eagles' case for another Super Bowl run. Jalen Hurts would most likely agree with me here.
32. Chiefs
TCU WR | Quentin Johnson
Aaron - The Chiefs (may they suffer for beating my Eagles) have proven tenfold over the past year that they don’t need superstar WRs to succeed (read: dominate). That said, why wouldn’t they use the last pick this first round to grab a talented wideout? With Johnson falling to this point in the draft and him being the far-and-away best player available, according to my big board, it just makes too much to add Johnson. He’s a go-up-and-get-it type of receiver who somehow still has blazing speed and quality route-running.
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