Aaron - What’s up y'all, and welcome to the final AP Sports Theory Mock draft for this 2023 draft season. The goal here isn’t to predict what each team IS going to do; this is what Ryan and I WANT them to do. As usual, we went back and forth on air, making our selections, but this time with trades. If you want to listen to our immediate reactions and horrible decision-making, click the link here for the podcast episode.
1. Panthers
Florida QB | Anthony Richardson
Ryan - Over the last few weeks, I have thought long and hard about what should be done here. Yes, Bryce Young is a better quarterback right now, but the idea of a full-potential Anthony Richardson has the Panthers drooling at the mouth. Anthony Richardson has no physical limitations, as he showed at the NFL Combine in March. Richardson will have to limit the mistakes, but with a Super Bowl-winning offensive coordinator as your head coach, the sky’s the limit.
2. Colts (Via mock trade with Texans)
Ohio State QB | C.J. Stroud
Aaron - This pick is an interesting one, but not that wild, really. Stroud is our QB1, but truthfully, it’s not because of him. He’s our QB1 because he isn’t small, or inexperienced, or a wild card, like some of the other quarterbacks in this class. He’s the most pro-ready QB in the group, and his accuracy is out-of-this-world good. His ability to place the ball in tight windows and his pocket presence make him the best passer in this year’s draft.
3. Cardinals
Alabama EDGE | Will Anderson Jr.
Ryan - With uncertainty surrounding the regime as of recent news, the Cardinals go with the safest pick here. Anderson is a monster off the edge and showed that in 2021 and 2022. With J.J. Watt retiring, this, again, is the safest move for the franchise with no stability. His stats dipped in 2022, but that was purely because of the fact that he was often double and even triple-teamed.
4. Texans (Via mock trade with Colts)
Alabama QB | Bryce Young
Aaron - Full transparency - I don’t believe Young can succeed at the NFL level. I also am not sure taking a quarterback here at four is the best move for the Texans, but what other options do they have? Stroud and Richardson are off the board, and Young is a better prospect in almost every way to Levis. So, the Texans take Young here, but if it doesn’t work out no problem. Next year’s class includes Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, who I believe are better than this entire class.
5. Seahawks
Georgia DT | Jalen Carter
Ryan - Yes, the Pro Day was a concern of mine at the time. Now I’m even more concerned with the fact that he only met with teams inside the top 10. I think the idea of letting a generational talent like Carter falls to another NFC team would be gut-wrenching for Seattle. Seattle has a great track record for dealing with players with large egos (Marshawn Lynch, D.K. Metcalf). Off-the-field issues aside, he’s the best player in this class, and this Seahawks team gets just that much better.
6. Lions
Illinois CB | Devon Witherspoon
Aaron - I need you to stop reading this. For real, hold up a second. Now go to YouTube and watch 30 seconds of Witherspoon film. That is all you’ll need to understand why anyone would want to draft him, especially Dan Campbell, an NFL coach’s manly man. Witherspoon is a smaller corner, but he plays with a “take your head off your shoulders” energy. He would fit perfectly in Detroit.
7. Raiders
Oregon CB | Christian Gonzalez
Ryan - Devon Witherspoon may have been my pick here if he fell past the Lions. Something this Raiders team is still lacking is an outside corner that possesses the ability to cover wideouts or even tight ends that have a height advantage. The roster is stacked with nickel corners and press corners, but still missing someone that can cover a zone EFFICIENTLY when Patrick Graham asks.
8. Commanders (Via mock draft with Falcons)
Kentucky QB | Will Levis
Aaron - This is another interesting pick here, not because of the player, but because of the trade to get to this spot. The commanders need a quarterback desperately, and they’ve been connected to whispers of Hendon Hooker at 16 for some reason. Instead of settling for the 25-year-old who might not ever see a snap, Washington trades up for Levis and hopes to turn this franchise around with some new ownership at the helm.
9. Bears
Northwestern OT | Peter Skoronski
Ryan - I think Skoronski is a bust. You can make fun of me later if he becomes some perennial All-Pro. But one of the biggest needs for Chicago is to stop giving Justin Fields an excuse. I would’ve taken Wilson here if I had half a brain, but giving Justin Fields time to pass to his newly acquired receiver in D.J. Moore is priority number two. Skoronksi will eventually make the transition to guard.
10. Eagles
Texas Tech EDGE | Tyree Wilson
Aaron - The Eagles need an edge rusher. In most mocks, you see the Birds draft Nolan Smith, the Georgia DE, but because Wilson fell here to ten due to some of the usual AP Sports Theory tomfoolery, the Eagles snagged him. In a recent segment I did for a radio show, I mentioned that the Eagles' strategy at pick ten should be “see who’s here, and if it isn’t (insert names here), trade back.” Wilson is one of those names, along with guys like Carter and Witherspoon.
11. Patriots (via mock trade Titans)
Penn State CB | Joey Porter Jr.
Ryan - Trading up with the Eagles would be smarter here, but Aaron made a convincing offer to me here (Ha - Aaron). With all four quarterbacks off the board, the Titans end up moving down to address many needs while adding capital. The Patriots are all kinds of whack right now. Even since Tom Brady left, it has seemed as though the Patriots have just been left scrambling to put the pieces back together. With one of the best corner classes in recent memory, the Patriots add another playmaker. Michael Mayer is also an option here.
12. Texans
Ohio State WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Aaron - The Texans drafted Bryce Young with the fourth pick in this draft. Why not draft him a No. 1 weapon so they can develop together? There is an ongoing debate in the NFL media about what makes a quarterback develop into a good player, nature or nurture. Is it the nature of the quarterback, the attitude, the skillset, and the work ethic? Or is it the nurture from the organization, the players they surround the QB with, and the coaching? I believe the latter, which is why the Texans should take JSN to help Young.
13. Packers
Notre Dame TE | Michael Mayer
Ryan - Aaron Rodgers is now a New York Jet. I think the trade was good for both sides, and they were both winners. The Packers still got a lot out of it, and in this scenario, they moved up to pick No. 13. I haven’t seen enough out of Jordan Love to firmly say he is QB1 material, but allowing him to succeed now becomes my biggest priority. Yes, one could argue that the defense could be addressed. However, this is now a league where having an elite tight end is a luxury. So, for the first time since 2002, the Green Bay Packers select a skill position player in the first round.
14. Titans (Via mock trade with Patriots)
Clemson EDGE | Myles Murphy
Aaron - The Titans are in a WEIRD spot. They drafted Malik Willis in the third round of last year's class, but then a marital dispute between the front office and the coaching staff, and that was the beginning of a strange reboot for this team. Jeffery Simmons is back on the team, Tannehill’s contract is expiring soon, and all signs point to King Henry leaving sooner rather than later. My take on the Titans? Now is the time to tank. Drop everything and race to the bottom of the barrel and try to get Maye or Williams. How does that analysis relate to this pick? Having a good defense is an excellent way to help out your young QB, and the Titans need to start building for the future.
15. Jets
Ohio State OT | Paris Johnson Jr.
Ryan - The Jets move down two spots here and still get the best offensive lineman in this class, in my opinion. The Jets have been plagued by injuries on the offensive line. Paris Johnson Jr. would slide right in. I’m not sure if the Jets see him as purely a left tackle and move Becton to the right side. All I know is if I’m Aaron Rodgers going into my 19th season in the NFL at the ripe old age of 39, I don’t want to have to constantly be worrying about my blindside.
16. Falcons (Via mock trade with Commanders)
Georgia EDGE | Nolan Smith
Aaron - The Falcons are one of a few teams that I can’t list out their team needs because there are way too many. Because of that, this pick is simply the best player available. Smith is a quick player with a ton of burst who likes to get low to the ground and get around tackles - similar to Haason Reddick. And to quote Scout Hughes of Around the Cooler, “If you can get Nolan Smith at 16, you’re doing something right.”
17. Steelers
Ohio State OT | Dawand Jones
Ryan - As Scout Hughes says, “He’s a big dawg - Woof”. In this case, Scout would be spot on. You can teach hand placement, and you can coach screen assignments, but what you can’t coach is physical abilities. Standing at 6’8” and at a massive 374 pounds to pair with a smothering 87 ⅞ wingspan that was measured at the Senior Bowl, Jones decided to let his physical traits speak for themselves. For a team that allowed 38 sacks last year, the Steelers take a swing on him and grab someone who didn’t allow a single sack last year.
18. Lions
Utah TE | Dalton Kincaid
Aaron - This is one of my favorite picks in this mock and one that I felt even better about when I heard about the suspension of Jameson Williams (which is ridiculous, by the way). Kincaid is an excellent route runner with sure hands who’s drawn comparisons to the Chiefs TE that I shall not name. Adding him to an already-stacked Lions offensive unit is an excellent move and an even better one with Williams out six games.
19. Buccaneers
Northwestern EDGE | Adetomiwa Adebawore
Ryan - Adebawore slid in our last mock draft, but that isn’t because he is a bad prospect; he is rather incredibly raw. The Buccaneers may be in the market for a quarterback. However, I think that there are many needs that they need to address first. They can play it out with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask for now. As my 15th-ranked prospect, 21st on our AP Sports Theory Big Board, Adebawore would allow Tampa to get younger on an already expensive defensive front.
20. Bills (Via mock trade with Seahawks)
Texas RB | Bijan Robinson
Aaron - Imagine, if you will, a read option between Josh Allen and Bijan Robinson. That should be all the convincing you need to understand this selection. No, but seriously, the Bills need some help in the backfield, and there is none better than Robinson. Trading up here is an interesting decision, but the Bills wanted to get their guy.
21. Chargers
Boston College WR | Zay Flowers
Ryan - I still blame Brandon Staley for the Chargers' woes. That doesn’t stop me from making the best selection here. Some even view Flowers as the best wideout in this class. That doesn’t mean a lot necessarily because this receiver class is quite lackluster. Flowers is a day-one starter and would become an instant security blanket for Justin Herbert.
22. Ravens
Maryland CB | Deonte Banks
Aaron - The Ravens defense is one of the best in the league, and their offense is nothing but question marks. That said, their secondary isn’t nearly as good as their front seven, so drafting Banks, so is a terrific outside corner with freakish athleticism is sure to bolster that back side of the defense. Also, he can jump very high.
23. Vikings
Alabama S | Brian Branch
Ryan - This was a doozy for me because I loved Branch and raved about him in the pre-draft process. The Vikings would be a great fit, with Brian Flores taking over. Branch has fallen on our Big Board all the way to No. 42. He ran a 4.58-sec 40-yard dash and a 34.5-inch vertical, which didn’t help his case. I love the film, but the numbers also don’t lie. Ultimately with a below-average secondary, Branch would slide into the nickel spot and look to be a starter.
24. Jaguars
Georgia OT | Broderick Jones
Aaron - The Jags are all in on Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, and the best way to protect your investments in the backfield is to prevent defenders from getting into said backfield. Thus, Broderick Jones.
25. Giants
South Carolina CB | Cam Smith
Ryan - Strictly speaking about needs here, the Giants are lacking playmakers in the corner room. They aren’t fully committed to Adoree Jackson and lost James Bradberry last off-season. Beyond the corner room, this defense is solid. I could see a wideout here; however, I think they can address the position in the later rounds or next year.
26. Cowboys
Clemson DL | Bryan Bresee
Aaron - Ryan called this pick a reach, which may be true, but Bresee is also the best player available at this position for Dallas. Most mocks have Dallas taking a tight end, but with Mayer and Kincaid gone here, it makes the most sense to shore up a position of need for Dallas and take a player whose floor may be low, but his ceiling is high too.
27. Seattle (Via mock trade with the Bills)
Arkansas LB | Drew Sanders
Ryan - It genuinely surprises me that Drew Sanders has fallen this far. Sanders is my favorite prospect in this year's draft. Sanders is by far the best player left on the board. The fact that Seattle may come out of this draft with Jalen Carter and Drew Sanders actually scares me immensely. This new front seven would now have a legitimate case for the best in the league if this were the case.
28. Bengals
Alabama RB | Jahmyr Gibbs
Aaron - According to anonymous sources (that I’m not sure I trust), Gibbs is a first-round grade for most teams and is unlikely to fall this far in the draft. I would say that the gap between Bijan and Gibbs is the same size as between Gibbs and RB3. Because of that, and the fact that the Bengals are currently going through a rather messy divorce with Joe Mixon, Gibbs is something of a must-pick here for Cincy.
29. Saints
Iowa EDGE | Lukas Van Ness
Ryan - Wanna guess who my comp is for Van Ness? Take a wild guess. Spoiler Alert: It's Cameron Jordan. Cameron Jordan will command more and more money for a Saints team that is always strapped for money. Lukas Van Ness would allow the Saints to move on from Jordan whether in a trade or free agency.
30. Eagles
Pittsburgh DL | Calijah Kancey
Aaron - This is a pick I don’t feel the best about, but for the sake of the mock it’s what we’re going with. In my opinion the Eagles should trade back out of this pick into the second round and draft a corner or running back. But taking a quality player at a position of dire need is a good move for any team.
31. Chiefs
TCU WR | Quentin Johnston
Ryan - A borderline first-round prospect in my opinion lands here with the Chiefs. With Tyreek Hill’s departure last offseason, we saw at times the Chiefs offense would be stalled. Johnston gives them a true X receiver on the roster to move forward with for the next four years.
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